The Hypothesis Registry

The Hypothesis Registry

Each claim or open question is codified as an artifact. The standing review’s complete H-001 through H-015 block is now in the registry; later ids carry campaign-native claims and explicit open questions. The ledger is generated from the artifacts and is the current view; this section is the reading of it. Rounds and effort below repeat the ledger’s per-hypothesis totals, which count every round that names the hypothesis, control roles included.

Confirmed

H-019—Trump’s tested shared- tilt slice is non-smooth at the published optimum. Registered by the runner of exp-006 before recording that round, because the round measured something H-002 did not predict; confirmed by exp-010. Elaborated in The Corner above. It is the campaign’s first confirmed claim, and the one that changed a method.

Refuted, and what each refutation bought

H-016. The null: a serious budget on a general-purpose annealer finds the best known packing. Within 10−4${10}^{-4}$ only at $n=12$$n=12$. The refutation is not the interesting part—the two failures were different in kind. At $n=10$$n=10$ later cell polishing showed the candidate had the record’s declared structure and stopped 4.19×10−4$4.19\times {10}^{-4}$ short (polish); at $n=11$$n=11$ it remained 3.73×10−2$3.73\times {10}^{-2}$ above Trump and no terminal-component relation was measured. That operational distinction set the next four rounds without proving a topological one.

H-002. Claimed that alternating LP solves with local angle moves refines any annealer output to the analytic value. Refuted as stated, and the cell-level split is the result:

The word that failed is any. The quench is a polisher, not a rescue: it makes the declared cell optimum reproducible to solver precision, which is an input to the census and atlas, and it does not lift the burden of finding a competitive region off the proposer.

H-018. Predicted an $\epsilon$$\epsilon$ at which the return rate collapses, which would be the basin’s radius. Observed rate at the registered ε=10−3$\epsilon ={10}^{-3}$: 0 of 40 in every arm. The residual scaled approximately linearly with $\epsilon$$\epsilon$ under the tested finite schedules and decreased with more effort. That diagnoses incomplete convergence of this refiner; it does not prove an attracting basin through ε=10−1$\epsilon ={10}^{-1}$, distinguish an isolated endpoint from a terminal family, or establish component membership for the perturbed trajectories.

Blocked, and on what

The priority-1 agenda has two independent bottlenecks. The basin lane is blocked on the measurement system around the quench: terminal-component identity, endpoint classification, event provenance, coverage estimation, independent validity, and a named proposer regime. The proof lane now has both halves of its calibration: exp-016 falsifies Stromquist’s printed certificate, while exp-017 certifies a complete source-distinct repair. The same two-sided falsifier/certificate architecture can now target a new lower bound at $n=12$$n=12$.

• H-011 (census at $n\le 10$$n\le 10$) needs H-021’s classification evidence, event records, and a coverage estimator.
• H-012 (the premise the cartography programme rests on) needs H-011’s machinery plus an explicit $n=11$$n=11$ sampling cell. Kill: record-basin probability within ~10× of the modal basin’s, in which case the cartography program stands down and the campaign reverts to throughput. Still untested, which is the largest open question about the strategy.
• H-001 (angle classes) now has a strong prior from exp-006 but remains unmeasured as a search claim: the class-constrained arm assumed the answer’s own structure, so it shows the angle search method decides the outcome, not that an unguided method would find that structure.
• H-010 (Stromquist calibration) is terminally refuted by exp-016. An exact strict box avoids every printed Figure 14 point, so the five-node conjunction fails at its fourth node. The result rejects the published proof as printed, not the numerical lower bound.
• H-041 (proof repair) is confirmed by exp-017 after moving only G.x from .8 to .79. The complete exact repair proves the same lower bound with 26 repaired Figure 14 faces and thirteen passing mutations; it does not make the published proof correct as printed.

H-017 (100× budget) stays open and demoted behind a short response curve. It is operationally shaped, and D-044 — the boundary that made it inadmissible unattended — is repaired against the producer and independently reviewed. D-044 stands contained rather than fixed: the review of 2026-09-03 returned BOUNDED-CAVEAT, and one clause of the defect’s source finding plus three residuals on the same archive boundary are named in the record and not closed. No live round has passed through the repaired boundary, so admitting it unattended is still a review decision rather than a settled one.

D-460 is the other entry standing contained, and it is a contract gap rather than a finding: agenda-022’s BC-206 declared purpose: research with no hypothesis, and the experiment contract requires at least one, so a cell could be drafted, budgeted, dispatched and completed before anything noticed its output had nowhere to go. Its hundred minutes and thirteen run blocks are retained as nine covering-value rows and a run register — the more accurate description, since nothing was pre-registered and so nothing was tested — but the ledger’s round count and effort attribution do not see them. The check that would refuse the shape at draft time, rather than at the experiment record, is named in the entry and not built.

D-467 stands outstanding, and it is the one entry here that no check inside this repository can close. Two branches allocated D-455, D-456 and D-457 to six different defects while both were open, and the collision repeated one level down at D-458 when the second branch merged. conventions.md already carries the rule — the later branch takes the next free ids and moves its references in the same change — which is what was done, twice, and each renumbered entry says so in its own text rather than only in a commit message. What is missing is detection: the schema enforces uniqueness within a file, which is exactly the property that still holds on both sides of a collision, so seeing one requires comparing against the merge base. That is a merge-time check and it is not built (think-8bcl).

The idea board carries the full registered portfolio alongside raw ideas and dead ends. The registry artifact, not the review’s historical prose or this summary, owns each current criterion and kill rule.

The mutable size-by-size run order lives in the basin-map confidence ladder, not in this status document. It labels every cell as tool validation, measurement validation, or genuine research. The event-retention controls through $n=8$$n=8$ and the bounded $n=9$$n=9$ performance cell are complete. The random-start size ladder stops there. BC-008’s source-bound $n=10$$n=10$ seeded-pose entry point now passes replay and a bounded run-path smoke test. Exp-031 completes its four-perturbation known-answer experiment at 4/4 converged, independently valid, and admissible. Exp-032 completes BC-009: exact $n=3$$n=3$ and $n=4$$n=4$ component controls pass while all 16 retained f64 observations remain unresolved. Exp-033 completes the first bounded BC-010 $n=5$$n=5$ connectivity slice: the equal-side pair shares one exact fixed-angle optimal face. Exp-034 embeds that face in an exact two-parameter angle-and-slide sheet, but complete stationary identity and the unequal-side rows remain open. Exp-035 derives the complete active first-order systems at both endpoints and one interior point and finds an exact direction outside that sheet in every owner branch; exp-036 excludes that displayed direction from the true Bouligand tangent cone by exact second-order inequalities in both owner branches. Exp-038 completes the first-order inventory with identical owner-branch V-representations, eight endpoint quotient rays, six interior quotient rays, and both derived face vectors. Transverse and mixed nonlinear realization remains open.